在“大封锁”和“大脱节”之后?”

For many of us, the last quarter felt like it lasted a lifetime. Every day seemed like a week and every week seemed like a month. 资本市场以前所未有的速度和愤怒波动. 在90天的时间里, 市场经历了一个完整的市场周期通常需要7年才能走完的过程.

随着世界各国政府为遏制COVID-19蔓延而实施的“大封锁”慢慢结束，夏季开始了. 在了解如何治疗患者和寻找有效疗法帮助康复方面取得了显著进展, all while working toward a vaccination which is not likely to be widely available until early next year. 在那之前, 世界已经认识到，这场突发公共卫生事件将持续一段时间，生活和商业将在新常态下继续.

In 我们最近的季度更新, 我们讨论了股市是如何进入熊市的, 下降了30%以上, 以及在3月的最后几周，由于预计“大封锁”(Great一级防范禁闭)将导致严重衰退，公司债券市场的息差出现了爆炸式增长.“终于, 在6月初, the National Bureau of Economic Research officially confirmed a recession began as early as February of this year. 亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDPNow指标, 经济增长的实时测量, is signaling that second quarter GDP could in fact contract by as much as 35% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.

然而，随着第三季度的开始， stock markets had recouped nearly all of their losses for the year and were within sight of the previous high-water marks while credit spreads had narrowed significantly, as economic data showed a better-than-expected recovery from very depressed levels. 值得注意的是, 已经连续第二个月了, the monthly jobs report came in ahead of expectations for June, 而制造业采购经理人指数, 通常被视为经济的先行指标, 回到扩张区域. 2020 so far has offered yet another reminder that capital markets lead the economy, 而不是反过来——这是我们投资过程的关键基础，它捕捉市场作为我们模型的输入而发送的前瞻性信息.

This has been the third-highest three month performance for the stock market since 1954. The only two better outcomes were off the generational market bottoms of 1982 and 2009. 然而,, the lasting damage inflicted on the economy as a result of the “Great Lockdown” cannot be underestimated. 失业率保持在11%, and there is evidence that permanent job losses from the pain inflicted on many small businesses is rising. As the alarming rate of new infections of COVID-19 continues to climb without a decisive medical breakthrough, the economic recovery cannot continue to accelerate and will likely plateau at much lower levels than last year. 然而,, capital markets still appear to be willing to look beyond what is likely to be a difficult second half of the year, 以“停止-开始”恢复为特色. 许多人所说的“大脱节”似乎已经出现在我们所面临的艰难的经济现实和资本市场已经反映出的更乐观的前景之间. Perhaps nothing paints a more ominous picture than the current valuation of the S&P 500 index, whose trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio sits at 25.6倍，而长期平均16倍.[1]这是怎么回事?

调和大脱节

看涨者认为，这类估值指标总是在经济低点附近飙升，而在始于2003年和2009年的牛市开始之初，股市实际上看起来更加昂贵. 他们会指出，90%以上的股票价格来自未来一年以上的利润——换句话说, that stock market investors should worry less about the immediate future and more about future earnings a year hence. 他们还将引用货币和财政当局“不惜一切代价”的非凡做法，该做法旨在为经济提供缓解，并填补收入差距，直到疫苗得到广泛供应. 如果需要的话，联邦政府似乎准备采取更多措施, 尽管在11月大选之前，两党要想达成进一步的财政刺激方案并不那么容易. 与此同时, 看涨者还认为，由于全球金融危机后颁布的监管规定，银行体系在进入危机时资本充足, and businesses are accelerating the adoption of the digitization of payments and other game-changing technologies, 比如基于网络的交流, 自动化, and artificial intelligence technologies to cope with the pandemic, 哪一种方法可以提高生产率和利润. 最后, 看涨人士指出了情绪水平, 通常是反向指标, 当货币市场共同基金的现金水平处于高位，流入债券基金的资金大幅超过流入股票基金的资金时，哪些是负值.

Indeed, the speed with which the Federal Reserve and Treasury acted is staggering. 美联储(Federal Reserve)表示，至少在2022年底之前不太可能提高短期利率，同时将其资产负债表扩大到7万亿美元以上, 从年初的4万亿美元上升, in an effort to backstop the corporate and municipal bond markets. 美国.S. government is already one of the top-five largest holders in more than ten bond exchange traded funds[2], 一些人估计，到今年年底，它将拥有半数可交易的巴克莱综合固定收益(Barclays Aggregate Fixed Income)资产.[3]国会通过冠状病毒援助之后, 救援, 和经济安全(关心)法案, 联邦预算赤字, 预计1月份仅为8000亿美元, 现在估计是3美元.本财政年度将有8万亿美元，推动美国经济增长.S. 债务占GDP的比例增加了15%.

另一方面, 看空者会认为，由于3个月前前景高度不确定，首席执行官们撤回业绩指引的程度如此之高，以至于第二季度的财报季可能会导致预期利润的向下修正幅度低于预期, 股息, 和股票回购. They argue that though the Fed’s impact on the bond market is significant, there is still a chance today’s deflationary forces and flight to safe assets could lead to negative interest rates, which has undermined the European and Japanese financial systems and economies over the past few years. 从长远来看, all the stimulus and debt piled up during 2020 may also lead to inflation and a debasement of the U.S. 美元作为世界唯一储备货币的地位——特别是如果经济复苏速度低于预期，导致债务/GDP的轨迹看起来会更快地变得不可持续. This is especially worrying in light of successive cohorts of baby boomer generations beginning to retire in earnest, 强调社会保障的福利项目, 医疗保险, 在未来三年内，在更大程度上支持医疗补助计划.

最后, bears will point to policy uncertainty emanating from the upcoming election cycle in November. 许多民意调查显示，对卫生大流行和社会动荡的处理方式的担忧，导致现任政府急剧失宠, particularly in swing states and among key constituencies required to win re-election. 100年来的数据表明，在连任之前的衰退和高失业率会导致总统任期结束. 到11月还有很长的路要走, but capital markets will soon be handicapping whether an election sweep will lead to a Democratic president and Senate, 根据该法案，部分废除2017年的企业减税政策，为一项基础设施法案提供资金，可能会被提上立法议程. In the short-term, this would weigh on corporate earnings expectations. In the interim, as the highly contentious domestic political cycle unfolds, U.S. geopolitical relationships with China and Russia continue to deteriorate.

前景

我们有理由对资本市场与经济之间出现的明显“大脱节”感到担忧. We believe the next six months are likely to bring greater volatility amid the current bullish vs. 悲观前景奋斗. We remain attuned to the messages that capital markets send about the future and will aim to stay grounded, 一如既往地, 在我们严谨的过程中，把它们组合在一起，为我们在定位投资策略时做出决策提供依据. This h一如既往地 been the best way for us to remain unemotional during challenging times, 即使这样会让人感觉不舒服. Proactive rebalancing and selectivity will continue to be key as the winners and losers in a post-pandemic world emerge. 这些都是我们20多年来流程的标志，也是我们认为过去几年所创造的投资业绩在未来可以重复的关键.

我们为我们为客户提供的建议感到自豪，因为我们引导他们度过了非常困难和痛苦的上半年，以追求他们的长期财务目标.然而，我们并不满足于现有的成就. 除了谦逊，投资行业不会教给你任何东西. We recall the bouts of frustration and impatience with all risk-managed and globally diversified approaches during a long, 这十年开始前的牛市. 感谢你们对我们团队的信任和信心.

最后, the 2020s are shaping up to being one of the most pivotal decades in history. 除了金融目标和投资战略之外，还有许多重要的战略问题是博天堂注册大流行后的世界会是什么样子的. 我们在未来6个月启动了一系列名为“复苏之路”的网络研讨会，将主题专家和商业领袖召集在一起，讨论冠状病毒健康大流行将带来哪些持久的变化. After covering “Private 市场” with leading private market investors in part one of our series, 接下来，我们将探讨“全球供应链”，因为世界各地的企业正从“及时”的理念转向“以防万一”的理念. 今年夏天晚些时候, we will explore the strategic economic impacts from both a big and small business perspective.

[1]数据来源于Strategas Research Partners.
[2]交易所交易基金(ETF)是一种投资工具，投资者可以通过它获得具有持续流动性的标的证券的指数敞口.
[3] /贝莱德.
[4]请参阅博客"现在是DIY投资者的考验时间”和“购买有思想的合作产品，而不是投资产品.”